Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the tension sparked by the introduction of a new 28-point plan for ending the war appeared – briefly – to have been defused. A American diplomat spoke of "significant advancement" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its response: an extensive attack of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Diplomacy and Destruction
The chain of opposing developments captured the grim essence of the current period. By day, political struggles are waged: positive announcements are delivered from various governments. Considerable effort is devoted on containing certain initiatives. By night, Russian leadership clearly shows the world that, for them, war remains the primary tool for achieving "peace".
After-Dark Attacks
As the offensive progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's vulnerability was exposed. Ukraine is capable of detecting projectile deployments from Russian territory, a capability provided through up-to-date information. From witness perspectives, military aircraft that had been deployed to counter approaching aerial threats roared overhead – advanced fighter aircraft provided to Ukraine by Western partners.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's air-defence systems thundered: several firings fired to intercept a Russian ballistic missile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, probably provided by Western nations. Every launch shakes the surroundings, shaking the windows. The brief panic quickly gives way to sober acceptance: possibly the incoming missile won't strike its target this time, protecting urban areas from catastrophe and additional electricity failures.
Ongoing Risks
Soon after, a automatic firearm opened up on a aerial vehicle close by, part of a rapid response unit – most likely allied-provided weaponry. Regrettably, the shots failed to hit the enemy aircraft – it maintained course toward its target.
With pauses, this continued until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the daybreak reports: seven people killed, damage and infrastructure problems in numerous residences as a result of the night's assault. As typically, everyone still maintained normal activities – enduring hostilities. But those 24 hours illustrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on Western support – a dependence that neighboring countries are clearly incapable to substitute in the immediate future.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The 28-point plan from US administration generated strong feelings, controversy and serious worry – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after earlier high-level meetings and bilateral conferences.
Every new approach from Washington unfolds according to the consistent cycle: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, effectively counters. They contain the crisis but never actually secure success. This pattern will, no doubt, persist.
Political Considerations
It is convenient to criticize certain parties of persistently promoting Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the whole story. Washington operates on a premise understood by seasoned negotiators: you cannot secure via talks what you have been unable to protect through force. The White House believes that it is unfeasible to pressure the Kremlin to surrender the areas that it currently occupies in Ukraine's south or east.
The problem is that while accepting these circumstances, Washington does little to discourage Russia, through statements or actions, from assuming that the situation will not change more in its favour in the near future.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, Russian leadership is certain that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its supporters are approaching exhaustion. Their reason to agree to terms that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is virtually nonexistent. There may be numerous efforts to achieve ceasefire, but they will persist as long as Russia's leader remains highly assured in the outcome.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still endure, progressively conceding people and territory but averting a entire defensive failure until circumstances change in its favour.
Current Realities
Factually, there are no genuine requirements for a truce. Now, subjective factors are entering the equation: leadership ambitions to broker a ceasefire and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Ukrainian leadership's double obstacles – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to unite the population around the national cause against any plan Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their priority does not switch to internal issues. And although their mission will now be significantly challenging after recent developments, it remains very improbable that this will change their overall approach.
These conflicting dynamics are guiding negotiations.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a just a single week to eliminate the proposed articles of the latest plan. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by American leadership, pushback by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with soothing efforts of representatives, and finally, current information leaks, all served their function.
While new initiatives based on old ideas are imminent, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter political attacks from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and show specific hesitation to alter the situation, if they stand together and improve their protective measures at a much faster pace. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the coming months, largely rely on continued Western support.
