Ten years after the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that polarised the country and unleashed turmoil, a advisory emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and voters drifted into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is equipped.
That represents the warning from two prominent commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially tense and seismic referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our region remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Intends to Stir Debate
The pair have analysed the governmental, financial and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a book, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the matter with a series of public talks that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everyone, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose implications have remained undefined because then you end up with an extraordinarily polarised community where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the those successful are uncertain precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue this point is imminent, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and unionists minimise the likelihood, leaving it unclear if and when there could be a national vote.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements for and against unity has hidden the lack of informed dialogue, said the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the notion but the actual thinking which could extend past that to realise it is mostly absent. Much has gone on in scholarly circles but hardly any government figures or advocates want to engage with the essentials. For instance, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, no writer supports unity or the current situation. Both composes two articles that aim for objectivity in detailing the argument for a united Ireland and the argument against, assembling economic and social data, previous instances and constitutional models.
Discussions encompass identity markers, taxes, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of unionist unrest. The objective is to inform and encourage conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," commented the writer. "Discussion indicates an acknowledgement of the idea that there could be good arguments on either side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they support unity but refuse greater financial contributions or introducing a different emblem to reflect unionists' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin should establish what the offer from pro-unification movements is beyond just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
McBride believes a referendum in his era is possible and that it may take place abruptly. "There might be just a mad or a bad or a negligent secretary of state who declares: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have plausible, justified points, he said. "Somebody will succeed here and somebody will eventually be defeated but all factions has has important lessons to learn from the other's arguments."
Call for Broader Dialogue
Westminster must join the debate, stated the analyst. "This is about Britain. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish question."
